Friday, May 30, 2008

Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead. "BF"

Guarded behind wide thick walls of strong culture, pride, fulfillment, and fear of failure.
Is the only computer company in the US with a bright promising future. 
Unfortunately "secrecy" like it or not,  is Apple's secret of success.
aapl, hpq, dell

A question of computers

Who is winning computer market share Apple Dell or HP. Seems for now that:
aapl is # 1 
hpq is # 2
dell is # 3 
Although dell introduced many new XPS series computers and the all-in-one desktop, yet this has not reflected in increased desktop sales.
For now its seems a pure laptop play for both dell and hpq, while desktop market share goes to the likes of aapl and asustek.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Is oil waiting for the market to crash?

Or is the market waiting for oil to crash? 
Anyway you look at it, the least damaging scenario is that oil will stabilize around current levels. and the market will not crash. 
Until someone somewhere shows the blueprint  of a truly  feasible renewable energy alternative. Solars,  PVs, Solar thermal,  look good but storage and efficiency need billions of improvements. 
Who is pouring enough dollars on improving efficiency of solar power systems, PVs as well as alternative methods in energy or electricity storage? 
Is google the answer? not yet because they are only investing tens of millions on an industry that needs tens of billions.
But google could be the answer, they should test the grounds by saying they may increase their planned  investment in renewables to a billion dollars and are open for discussions with other big investors who want to join forces.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Citi denies Pandit talking crisis management with H-P’s Hurd

Citi denies Pandit talking crisis management with H-P’s Hurd - Financial Week

Citi's crisis management

The way Citi's management is handling things is most disturbing, I doubt if shedding assets "that they call non core" in this environment is the right decision.  UBS for example is resorting to a different strategy, a rights issue at a 31 percent discount below the current share price.  Citi share price will test its 52 week low sooner or later, however the sooner they get out of all this mess the better, selling those assets at or near their book value may take years. This will surely lure big long term investors away. 

Thursday, May 22, 2008

A sunless day on the street?

Another gloomy day? 
Probably. 
Let's invest in crude oil, even at this level in my opinion oil is still cheap.
Let's do renewable energy especially solar. Their our only hope for a prosperous future.
Let's invest in a car maker that has the guts to say no more SUV's. "if you find one of them please tell me"
Let's not invest in huge companies who continue to devour smaller more complaisant ones
Let's not invest in businesses who say they are masters in cost savings; As their customers are bound to flee.
Let's not bring back coal. It should have been dead a long time ago.
Let's steer away from banks until they decipher the word corruption.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

How well will Dell report.

Dell will be reporting after hours May 29th. Overseas sales percentage will be the crucial criteria in this report. Due to stagnant US sales, investors will be looking at how well it has handled its long overdue expansion in the global economy.
From previous company reports it seems that contrary to hpq which generated more then 70% of its revenue from overseas and aapl  which is gaining market share in the US. Dell has not delivered in terms of overseas revenue growth. Dell's overseas revenue percentage has yet to top the  50% mark. Raising a lot of question marks about how well it has adapted its culture to a business where growth, survival and globalization are now synonyms.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Apple's continued onslaught on the PC

Feeling the crunch on PC sales due partly to Apple's continued success and "Halo" effect from the iPod and the iPhone.
HP is going after IBM's large clients where it will eventually have more space to compete, and possibly recover lost revenue. HP will most probably be reporting below expectation on Thursday and is betting that its new acquisition will reassure investors of better times to come.
Dell the major looser to Apple in terms of market share is still to declare any clear strategy to overcome dwindling PC sales. 

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Lebanese government concedes to the demands of Hezbollah.

Iran sends the strongest message to the US. Your Mideast allies are too weak!!
But we are not flipping the table YET!

Friday, May 9, 2008

Oil set to rise to near $130

Oil is set to rise as high as $130 on news Hezbolah has taken control of Beirut.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

After a huge decline yesterday

Indexes will be up before the bell loosing steam fairly quickly. Financials will weigh  the market down after a fairly modest start . Automakers will also weigh after Toyota reporting. And technology will follow. 
Bears will win the day inflation giving them the upper hand.
Personally I am holding on my hedged put 25 on C unless something major happens, which I doubt.
My naked put 19 on Dell will have to wait a few more days.
 

To all my friends

I say to you don't trust me on it and if I make a good guess say he's been lucky. 

is the market going to be up or down?

I am sometimes asked the question: is the market going to be up or down?.
I was surprised by how my brain reacts to this question. It chooses not to answer. Although I am vexed because my desire to help is very high, and deep in my thoughts I sometimes have  a clear chart of how a trading day may look like.
However I understand more and more why my brain gets lost upon this question. Because it knows clearly that it can never anticipate a market move without a good amount of doubt.
This doubt can translate into losses for the friend asking the question and therefor my subconscious shuts down my desire to help.